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between now and Christmas.

This should

be followed by a similar drive early in 1948

in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres,

at that time covering all food crops.

To accomplish such ambitious programmes

the deficit countries must secure more equip

ment and supplies. They do not have enough

tractors. The 1947/48 export supply of trac

tors is forecast at somewhat over 100,000.

This quantity may not suffice and it may not

be delivered in time. Some tractors need to

be delivered in the next two months and the

balance not later than February.

A timely

delivery programme can be organized only if

Governments in supplying countries are will

ing to see that the necessary priorities are

given to foreign orders.

More fertilizers are needed, especially nitro

gen.

Evidence presented in the Fertilizers

Review prepared for the Geneva Conference

(Conference document C47/27) shows that the

various countries would take 3.8 million tons

of nitrogen but only hope to receive 2.9 mil

lion tons. There are plants in Europe that

could produce more nitrogen if more coal were

allocated to them. There are plants in North

America that are operating below capacity

while some are selling liquid ammonia for less

essential industrial purposes.

Supplies of

potash are also uncertain.

Deliveries may

be too small or too late, or both.

There is still just enough time to revise

fertilizer production programmes. If prompt

action can be taken, greatly increased quan

tities could be delivered to farmers by Fe

bruary, which would be in time for the

Northern Hemisphere spring dressings.

Certain agricultural seeds are in short sup

ply.

In Europe this is particularly true of

the biennial root crops which suffered during

the severe winter.

Prompt importation of

appropriate varieties, generally from neigh

bouring countries but in a few cases from

overseas, would contribute substantially to

increasing next year’s per-acre yields.

The demand for pesticides outruns the sup

ply. Not only are the traditional products,

such as copper sulphate and lead arsenate,

not being produced in adequate quantity but

the new and much more effective pesticides

evolved during the war are not yet available

to many of the deficit countries. Losses of

cereals, rice, potatoes, grapes and other fruit

have been heavy for lack of suitable materials.

A rapid survey of requirements followed by

prompt placing of orders could ensure a much

more adequate supply by next spring.

In all this deficiency of supplies for stimu

lating agricultural production, the trouble lies

to a considerable extent in the slowness of

industrial recovery.

There could be more

self-help in the provision of these supplies,

particularly in the European deficit countries,

if basic materials, such as coal and the che

micals, were more readily available.

coal is needed in fertilizer production and for

steel mills, more steel for agricultural machi

nery and implements and for restoring trans

portation systems, more chemicals should be

allocated to fertilizer and pesticides manufac

ture. But this cannot happen quickly, espe

cially since one prerequisite is an increase of

food rations for workers in coal mines and

other heavy industries.

Meanwhile, supple

mentary supplies of machinery, fertilizer, and

pesticides must be sought in other countries,

which in turn raises foreign exchange diffi

culties.

What is wanted is emergency action by

Governments acting in co-operation. Each

should state what it can do in the way of

self-help and how far it can make surplus

agricultural supplies available to other deficit

countries. Thereupon, a consolidated statement

should be prepared showing the combined

needs from external sources, indicating deli

very date deadlines, and setting out the rele

vant financial difficulties.

For food and agricultural supplies, one

group of European nations is already taking

action along these lines. In respect to Euro

pean timber needs, this has been done at the

Marianske Lazne Conference. But other na

tions have similar needs and it is imperative

that they, too, should come together in for

mulating programmes. If these needs can be

co-ordinated on a regional basis, taking rea

listically into account the delivery possibilities

within the next six months, the supplying

countries would be in a better position

to examine what specific additional measures

might help to meet the situation.

Owing to the

urgency

of the problem, the

Oeneva Confe

rence

may wish to recommend that

immedi

ately

after the session,

FAO

convene an

hoc

intergovernmental committee in each

main

deficit

region to accomplish this. FAO would

be prepared to assist with all the information

and services which it has at its disposal.

One thing stands out clearly, namely, that

the world shortage of food and several other

agricultural products is not, as was thought

earlier, a short-time affair of one or two

years. It is stretching on through 1948,

1949, and perhaps 1950.

For example, the

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