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the International Labour Organization, and,
when established, the International Trade
Organization, in regard to the more com
prehensive plans of Governments for over-all
economic development.
The Geneva Conference may wish to recom
mend that Governments which have not yet
reported on the subject include in their next
annual report to FAO some statement as to
whether they have long-term agricultural de
velopment programmes completed or in prepa
ration. Furthermore, as a first step in helping
to prepare the technical groundwork, the Con
ference may approve the proposed establish
ment during the coming year of regional cen
tres in the Far East, Latin America, and the
Middle East. The Governments in each re
gion should be able to use these centres as a
forum for discussion of their food and agri
cultural problems.
There is a vast amount to do. The world’s
population is increasing rapidly, and food
production must increase more rapidly. Soil
erosion must be stopped, waste lands made
fertile, and science applied to farming and to
forestry. In all countries the production
goals must be set high.
Last year FAO published in the
World Food
Survey
9 some interim nutritional targets.
To reach these within the next 15 years
world production would have to be expanded
5. LOCAL
In the midst of this attack on short- and
long-term scarcity, warning notes can already
be heard. It may seem untimely to talk of
surpluses when shortages are lasting so long,
and paradoxical to can them “ surpluses ”
when hundreds of millions of people still lack
many of the basic necessities of life. Sur
pluses when they emerge are “ local ” and
“ temporary ” in the sense that they cannot
readily be sold in a particular place or at a
particular time. The people who want the
product may not be able to afford to buy it,
or institutional barriers may keep them from
getting it.
In several quarters the view is held that
agricultural surpluses are not far distant.
Shortages of foreign exchange may reduce
the demand for imports. Present programmes
for expanding export supplies may lead to
surpluses when the present abnormal demand
of Asia and Europe begins to recede. Some
* FAO,
World Fowl Survey,
Washington,
5 July 1947.
by some 20 percent for cereals, 35 percent for
fats, 45 percent for meat, 100 percent for
milk, and over 150 percent for fruits and
vegetables.
These may seem ambitious
goals, but mankind has today the technical
tools wherewith to make revolutionary changes
in agricultural practice. It is now possible
to make a successful attack on the world’s
poverty and malnutrition.
In bringing these tools effectively to work,
mankind also has to deal with economic pro
blems which by their nature affect many
nations.
No Government acting alone is
likely to be able to reach successful solutions
of these problems. Indeed, to attempt to do
so is likely to exacerbate both the national
and international difficulties. FAO is predi
cated on another assumption. The nations
established FAO so that each country could
utilize fully the experience gained by others,
and could have regular opportunities for inter
governmental consultations. The machinery
is now ready to be used and a proposal has
been made to strengthen it by setting up a
Council of FAO.
Although the Governments are engrossed in
short-term emergency issues, they cannot
ignore the long-term challenge of malnutrition
and poverty. Civilization has to demonstrate
that it can bring its benefits to all the peoples
of the world.
SURPLUSES
of the reports from Governments show deep
concern with this problem. Indeed, these
fears are already causing some Governments
and farmers to tone down their production
programmes to something less than maximum
output. In some countries, less than the
maximum grain acreages have been sown
through fear of the magnitude of readjust
ment that might be called for later. In cer
tain areas where fish is already in surplus,
fewer boats will put to sea. And there are
the big development projects urgently needed
for Asia, Africa, and Latin America, many
of which may never be put in motion if this
anxiety about future markets persists.
Some agricultural products are threatened
by the forward march of technology. As
already mentioned, the producers of natural
rubber, mostly small-scale farmers, econo
mically defenceless, who have responded
speedily to the world’s urgent post-war
demand for production, find their livelihood
threatened by the improvements in their own
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