12 / 22
example, clothing and shelter—and their
production involves the livelihood of many
million farmers around the world.
World production in 1947/48 of the five
main apparel and household fibres—cotton,
wool, flax, silk, and rayon—should be a
little higher than in 1946/47 but still consi
derably less than 1935-1939. However, carry
over stocks are so substantial that the effec
tive supply is nearly as large as pre-war.
Cotton acreage, reduced during the war in all
the chief producing countries because of
labour shortages or competition of food crops
for the use of land, is recovering slowly.
The Russian flax and the Japanese silk indus
tries have been disorganized by the war ;
moreover, silk has lost a large part of its
market to man-made fibres, possibly perman
ently. Recovery in rayon production in Italy,
Germany, and Japan is held back by lack of
coal and caustic soda.
On the manufacturing side, the most wide
spread difficulty continues to be shortage of
labour, which in a period of full employment
can find better-paid work elsewhere. Lack
of fuel, power, and chemicals has also impeded
production.
Between 1939 and 1947 the
price of raw cotton almost quadrupled, while
the price of wool nearly doubled.
Many
countries find difficulty in paying for raw
fibre imports, especially at current prices,
although for some countries this was circum
vented by arrangements to supply fibres on
credit and take payment in finished textile
goods for export. The United Kingdom has
already announced a reduction in raw cotton
purchases, and it seems likely that in 1947/48
the overall import demand for raw fibres,
particularly cotton, will decline unless finan
cial aid is made available to deficit countries.
Consumption o f textile goods remains low in
many countries. In Far-Eastern areas, con
sumption is still about one-half to one-tenth
of pre-war. In Europe, the output o f textiles
has recovered more rapidly, but in most coun
tries consumption is still 20 to 40 percent
below pre-war. Supplies should increase fur
ther in 1947/48, but it will be some years
before the backlog can be made good.
FOREST PRODUCTS
Shortage of timber will continue in 1947/48
to delay many construction projects, especially
housing.
During the war, output and con
sumption o f forest products rose rapidly in
Canada and the United States, whilst by con
trast in Europe and Japan supplies were
seriously curtailed. Since the war, the tim
ber-exporting countries of Scandinavia and
Eastern Europe, producing less and consuming
more, have not regained their pre-war level of
exports. This, coupled with the difficulty of
financing imports from North America, espe
cially at present high lumber prices, prolonged
the acute shortage in Western Europe, the
United Kingdom, and Japan. In the United
Kingdom, for example, consumption is little
more than half of pre-war.
Last May at the International Timber Con
ference called by FAO at Marianske Lazne a
programme was formulated to meet this situa
tion.
The Conference recommended an
increase in fellings by 10 percent in European
countries for the next two years and the
introduction of measures to control and fur
ther economize the use of timber. It urged
action to obtain for the deficit countries
greater exports from Germany, the U.S.S.R.,
and North America.
Pulp and paper production is well above
pre-war, but the increase in both output and
consumption is concentrated in North Amer
ica.
Many European countries have less
than half their pre-war supplies.
Europe’s
output can increase in 1948 provided more
coal is shipped to Scandinavian countries.
But those countries try to sell their exports
in hard-currency areas rather than in the
deficiency countries of Europe. The supply
of pit props has temporarily caught up with
current demand while the use o f plywood is
expanding rapidly.
In the longer run, the world’s supply of
timber can be augmented by opening up tro
pical forests, particularly in Latin America.
This is already commencing, but a market
for the principal woods obtainable has still to
be established.
The Conference may decide to endorse the
recommendations of the Marianske Lazne
Conference and ask FAO to keep its Council
regularly informed, particularly as regards
co-operation with the Economic Commission
for Europe in handling immediate European
problems, and as regards the development of
forest policies in Latin America and the Far
East
RUBBER
Recovery of natural rubber production in
South-East Asia has been extraordinarily ra
pid. At about 1.2 million tons, the world out
put in 1947 has already surpassed the pre-war
average, while in 1948 the output will be still
[ 4 ]
Электронная Научная СельскоХозяйственная Библиотека