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larger. The native smallholdings have natur

ally resumed activity faster than the estates,

which face labour and other difficulties. At

present, smallholdings rubber accounts for

more than half the total supply.

The current output of natural and synthetic

rubber already exceeds the current consump

tion of new rubber. Yet in 1948 output will

be larger and demand smaller, since some

of the present backlog in demand will have

been satisfied.

The impending danger of

surpluses is reflected in rubber prices. Decem

ber futures are below 16 U.S. cents per pound

and July 1948 futures approach 14 cents. In

the United States of America it has been

recommended that some synthetic capacity

be kept in operation and, though no quantity

has yet been officially determined, total syn

thetic production in the United States and

other producing countries is likely to be at

least 500,000 tons. This, together with natural

rubber, would give a world annual output of

2.2 million tons against consumption forecast

at 1.6 million tons assuming high levels of

prosperity. In such a situation, whether prices

collapsed or restriction of production was

imposed, serious difficulties would arise for

those countries, for instance in Latin America,

where during the war production was expan

ded at considerable cost.

Moreover, it would

bring misery to the thousands of producers

and their families in South-East Asia. The

possibility of dealing constructively with this

problem is discussed later (see Section 5).

GENERAL FOOD BALANCE

The damage caused by the war to agri

culture in Asia and Europe is slowly being

repaired, but adverse weather has checked

the recovery in food production this year,

especially in parts of Europe. In Asia, the

overall indigenous food output is likely to

remain substantially unchanged compared

with 1946/47. Thus, unless food imports can

be raised, there seems little or no prospect

of improvement over the highly unsatisfac

tory level of 1700-2000 calories.

In the

other main deficit area—namely, Western

and Central Europe—indigenous food sup

plies are likely to be considerably smaller in

1947/48 and the already low calorie level may

fall a further 5 to 10 percent unless food

imports can be increased.

Fortunately, food output in the main export

ing areas of the world is expected to be

larger than in 1946/47.

There should be

more fats for export and more grain, espe

cially from the Southern Hemisphere.

addition to the usual sources of supply, the

U.S.S.R. and South-Eastern Europe should

have some grain for export.

It is important to form a preliminary idea

of the relation between supplies and needs

and of the intergovernmental efforts that

may be necessary. The Paris Cereals Confer

ence, which met 9 July 1947, made a first

approximation by estimating possible 1947/48

grain export at 32 million tons against im

porting countries’ stated requirements of 50

million tons.

This latter figure, however,

includes 6 million tons for livestock feed and

3 million tons for rebuilding of stocks, as

well as provision for an increase in the quality

or quantity of bread rations in several coun

tries.

More modest targets will have to be

set.

The matter may best be approached by

taking as an objective the maintenance of

cereal rations at the 1946/47 level and no more

—that is to say, without any restocking or

reversion to whiter flour or increase in the

amount of grain fed to livestock. To accom

plish this target would require 6 to 10 million

tons more grain imports than in 1946/47 ; a

more precise figure cannot be given until

better harvest estimates are available. This

is composed of 4.5 to 7 million tons for the

deficit area of Europe and North Africa, plus

1.5 to 3 million tons for Asia 4. Adding these

quantities to 1946/47 total grain imports of 28

million tons, the minimum import require

ments may be placed at 34 to 38 million

tons 5* * 8. Supplies available for export may be

tentatively estimated at 30 to 34 million tons.

Thus, even under the most favourable cir

cumstances, it would seem barely possible to

achieve the target of maintaining bread rations

unless new and far-reaching action can be

taken. If, however, bread rations could be

maintained it would permit a modest improve

ment in the calorie value of the diet in

certain countries, particularly in Europe,

where an increase in the supply of potatoes,

sugar, and fats is to be anticipated.

4 This would include supplies sufficient to

ensure the maintenance of the official rations

in countries where these were not always

honoured in 1946/47. In Asia the imports are

required to maintain rations in the deficit

regions which are cut off for lack of transpor

tation from surplus regions, in some of which

consumption levels may improve.

8 The 28 million tons in 1946/47 included

some 3 million tons used for feeding livestock,

but it probably will be impossible to prevent

at least a similar quantity being used for feed

in 1947/48.

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