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through improvement of pasture and other
indigenous fodder supplies.
If sufficient foreign exchange can be found
to finance an increase in imports and if the
system of allocations is maintained, consump
tion in most European deficit countries, apart
from Germany, should reach 70 to 75 percent
of pre-war consumption compared with 60 to
65 percent in 1946/47.
In Latin America,
India, and a few other exporting areas the
increase in
per caput
consumption registered
during the war is likely to be maintained,
which reduces the quantities of fats and oils
available for export.
LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
Output of meat and milk in 1947/48 is
likely to show only a little improvement over
1946/47 because, while in Europe and the
Southern Hemisphere some increase in domes
tic fodder crop output may be registered, a
world-wide shortage of feedstuffs continues.
In Europe—including the United Kingdom, the
principal importing area—livestock numbers
may increase slightly but principally in the
classes of breeding-stock and young animals.
Meat output is expected to remain low—
about 60 percent of pre-war—in Continental
Europe.
Milk and butter output will pro
bably be unchanged at about two-thirds of
pre-war, largely for lack of grain and oilcake.
In Southern Hemisphere exporting countries
where production of meat and dairy products
has remained at about pre-war levels, there
may be some increase in 1947/48. In North
America, output is far above pre-war and is
likely to be maintained.
Foreign trade in livestock products is largely
dominated by the imports of the United
Kingdom, which to a great extent are covered
by long-term contracts. Volume of imports
should continue at no more than the previous
year’s levels.
But imports, principally of
meat and processed milk, into the countries
where the United Nations Relief and Rehabi
litation Administration operated will have vir
tually ceased with the closing of UNRRA,
the countries concerned having insufficient
foreign exchange to purchase such commodi
ties at current prices.
It may be noted that there are no longer
world prices for these products but rather
a different price in each different contract or
trade agreement. Thus, during 1946/47, Dan
ish butter export prices have ranged from
4.19 kronen per kilogramme to the United
Kingdom, up to 8.70 kronen per kilogramme
to Finland.
The United Kingdom paid for
beef 4 to 4.5 pence per pound to Australia and
New Zealand, but 21.23 pence per pound to the
United States of America. In the early sum
mer wheat was selling at $1.55 per bushel
within the Canada-United Kingdom contract,
at $2.50 on the Chicago market, and at any
thing from $3.60 to $4.80 per bushel in Argen
tine contracts. A diversity of prices, though
less wide, characterizes the trade in several
other agricultural products at the present
time.
FISH
World fish production has steadily increased
since the end of the war but has not yet
regained pre-war levels.
This recovery is
expected to continue in the coming year.
Apart from Japan, France, and Germany, most
of the important fisheries countries should
be landing catches equal or close to the pre
war quantity. In several war-damaged coun
tries, however, the post-war transportation
shortage prevents widespread distribution of
fish outside coastal areas, and these diffi
culties will persist in 1947/48.
From the
nutritional viewpoint, wider fish distribution
would be the readiest way of augmenting the
supply of animal protein which is deficient in
most urban diets.
Governments of food-
deficit countries might be asked by the Geneva
Conference to re-examine the possibilities of
some immediate improvement in fish market
ing and transportation facilities.
International trade in fish is reverting
rapidly from the fresh and frozen to the
canned and salted products. Canned fish sup
plies for export in 1947/48 should be a little
higher than in the past year, largely because
o f Increased output in Norway and the United
Kingdom.
The large Japanese contribution
o f pre-war is still wholly missing.
Salted
cod exports in 1947/48 should be comparable
with the 1935-1938 level as a result of a brisk
revival o f output in Scandinavia during the
past two years. Landings from the herring
fisheries, which have been curtailed during
and since the war, may show some improve
ment, but only about 40 percent of the catch
goes into human consumption, the remainder
being used for oil, meal, and bait.
FIBRES AND FIBRE PRODUCTS
In this brief review of world supplies it is
important to consider not merely foodstuffs
but also the other principal agricultural pro
ducts.
They provide basic necessities—for
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