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reduced output in deficit countries, but hardly
enough to bring any significant betterment in
diets.
In the deficit countries, the general
state of malnutrition will persist and any
minor or local improvement will not much
lessen the cumulative effects of prolonged
deprivation.
CEREALS
The cereals harvest in the Northern Hemi
sphere is expected to be lower than in 1946,
because of winterkill in Europe, rust in India,
drought in China, and excessive rains in the
United States of America.
Europe’s bread
grain output may prove to be from 4 to 6
million tons lower and India’s wheat crop is
reported to be down by about one million tons.
The United States of America, although
harvesting the largest wheat crop in its his
tory, expects the outturn of maize and other
fodder grains to be less than in 1946, which
may mean a tight feedstuffs situation in spite
of a considerable carry-over of maize. Only in
the U.S.S.R. and certain other areas of
Eastern Europe is a marked improvement
over 1946 to be expected.
The U.S.S.R.
has announced the abolition of bread ration
ing and is understood to be contracting to
export substantial quantities of grain during
the coming year.
It is too early to predict Southern Hemi
sphere grain harvests, but with average
weather the outturn should exceed the
drought-affected level o f recent years. Like
wise with rice it is too soon to predict, but
some improvement is likely.
Hoods have
damaged rice crops in South China, but India
expects a better harvest than in 1946/47.
Japan’s harvest may even surpass the excel
lent one o f last year. Indo-China will pro
bably export less but there is a prospect of
improvement in Burma.
Altogether rice
exports, including those from the Western
Hemisphere and from Egypt, may be increased
by perhaps half-a-mfflion tons3.
POTATOES
In many countries of Europe, the potato is
the next most significant food after bread.
If weather conditions are average until har
vest time, the coming crop, sown on a larger
acreage, should be heavier than that of
1946/47.
In several countries o f Western
,J
An up-to-date account of the world
cereals and rice situation will be prepared and
made available immediately prior to the Geneva
Conference.
Europe, because of general food shortages,
potato consumption is already well above pre
war, supplies having been diverted from live
stock to human use.
Further recovery in
production this year, notably in Eastern Eu
rope, should enable those peoples also to
expand their potato consumption.
SUGAR
World sugar supplies in 1947/48 will pro
bably be only a little better than in 1946/47
because a substantially increased output in
Europe, the U.S.S.R., and the Philippines may
be almost matched by the anticipated decline
in Cuban production. But the restoration of
production in Europe (excluding Germany)
means not only an improvement in the sugar
ration but also, for many countries, a saving
in scarce foreign exchange.
In the Far East, Java is unlikely to be
exporting any significant quantities.
For
this and other reasons, India, Japan, and
Korea at present have to obtain their imports
principally from Cuba and the United States.
Cuba, which during the war pushed pro
duction to phenomenally high levels to help
the United Nations, may face considerable
readjustment problems. Dollar shortages and
the present high world sugar price, coupled
with the recovery of production in war-
damaged countries, threaten to reduce the
demand for Cuban sugar substantially. Here
is need for international action to seek a solu
tion not, as before the war, by restriction but
by positive programmes to remove barriers
to consumption in low-consumption countries
and low-income groups.
FATS
Production of fats and oils continues its
slow but steady improvement and supplies in
1947/48 should be better than in 1946/47.
Because both Canada and the United States
promised substantial price increases, their oil
seed acreage has risen sharply and a large
output is expected which may put the United
States in a net export position.
Much
heavier exports should come from the Argen
tine than in the disappointing season of
1946/47. Philippine copra exports will pro
bably remain at high levels, while moderate
quantities of oil may begin to flow from India
and Malaya. Mediterranean Europe is likely
to have a better olive-oil crop than in 1946/47,
but over Europe as a whole the output of
animal fats cannot expand much until more
feedstuffs become available through import or
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