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It is by no means certain that such high

export programmes can be fulfilled. The task

confronting nations for the coming year can

not therefore be to improve the bread supply

of deficit countries but rather to see what

new emergency measures can be devised to

ensure that the supplies are not further dimi

nished. Efforts must be made in two direc

tions, as in previous years. First, the deficit

countries will need to achieve a more thor

ough and effective utilization of their grain

harvests, as, for example, by tightening up

farm collections, diverting feed grain to hu

man use, and raising the flour extraction

ratios wherever possible.

Secondly, the ex

porting countries may be able to take steps

to mobilize maximum quantities for export and

to ensure that in each month of the crop

year both inland and ocean transportation

is utilized to the full.

The Geneva Conference may wish to call to

the argent attention of member Governments :

1. Reinforcement of food collection, conser

vation, and economy measures.

2. Emergency steps in exporting countries

to make still larger quantities of food

available.

3. Continuation of international allocation

for grain and certain other scarce

foods

for another year.

Although the machinery of international

allocation becomes increasingly difficult to ope

rate as the post-war food shortage drags into

its third year, the situation still demands such

co-operation. The cessation of UNRRA acti

vities in several countries coupled with accu

mulated exchange difficulties in others makes

it indeed more necessary to maintain machi

nery which defends those which are in weaker

bargaining positions. Even so, there may

increasingly often be instances in which coun

tries cannot afford to take up their alloca

3. PRIORITIES FOR

At the termination of hostilities there was

a widespread desire to believe that food trou

bles would shortly end.

Each year since

then, many people have thought that food

shortages would last only one more season —

until next harvest.

Consequently, very few

countries have at any time taken energetic

enough steps to augment the food crop of

the succeeding year. If this attitude conti

nues, not enough food will be produced next

year to ensure reasonable diets in 1948/49.

tions of essential foods.

Such a decision

should be interpreted as a danger signal sug

gesting that the foreign exchange position of

the country concerned requires overall review,

and that perhaps the aid of other countries

and of international agencies might need to be

enlisted.

The food problem of 1947/48 is not merely

a matter of a certain number of boatloads of

grain, although every boatload counts.

is a matter of saving human lives. In Asia

several countries — Malaya, Ceylon, Indonesia,

the Philippine Republic, Japan, and Korea—

depend substantially on food imports. Fur

thermore, in India and China, the principal

coastal cities as well as certain other coastal

regions rely heavily on imports and, for lack

of transportation and other reasons, could not

be supplied from the interior, however boun

tiful the indigenous harvest. If imports were

interrupted or curtailed, the distribution at

present precariously maintained could easily

break down and famine conditions ensue.

Moreover, the margin between emergency

subsistence diets and actual famine is much

narrower in Asia than in Europe.

Nevertheless, for Europe, too, food is a

decisive factor. The issue is whether or not

1947/48 witnesses a drift toward political

disintegration or a practical start along the

hard road to recovery.

If the deficit coun

tries fail to get a minimum supply of food,

then the repercussions must be faced. Coal

production may decline further, a large part

of industry may be idle during the coming

winter, and social unrest may spread through

the cities. If, on the other hand, the nations

severally and together can take the necessary

drastic action to get food to where it is needed,

then a foundation is laid on which the health

and strength of the working people can be

rebuilt and industrial recovery can go forward

with assurance.

THE 1948 HARVEST

Extraordinary efforts will have to be made

in all parts of the world and there must be no

hesitancy — no fear of producing too much.

These efforts need to be made quickly if

they are to have good effect. Already, when

the FAO Conference meets, the stubbles will

be being ploughed in the Northern Hemisphere

for the sowing of winter grains.

To begin

with, many nations could raise their winter-

grain acreage goals well above present targets

and aim at getting the maximum area sown

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