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SUMMARY
The world food situation and outlook, in the near future and further
ahead, will be the central topic of discussion at the Geneva Conference of the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, beginning 25 August.
Needed lines of action will be decided on by representatives of some 50
nations.
Scarcity, not only of foodstuffs but of lumber and other forest products,
textiles, seeds, fertilizers, draught power, and farm equipment will continue
throughout most of Europe and Asia during the coming year.
Hopes of continued recovery in Europe’s indigenous food supplies were
checked by last winter’s bad weather.
Diets in Western and Central Europe will be still lower next year, and
in Asia they will remain at present very low levels, unless imports can be
increased.
Even to hold the present line will require drastic action.
Twenty-eight million tons * of grain were imported into the deficit areas
in 1946/47.
Minimum import needs for Europe, North Africa, and Asia in 1947/48
may be estimated at 34 to 38 million tons — without allowing for any
improvement in bread rations, any additional livestock feeding, or any
increase in working reserves.
Against this need, supplies of grain available for export from the surplus
countries may be tentatively estimated at 30 to 34 million tons.
Even with somewhat larger supplies of certain other foods — particularly
potatoes, sugar, and fats — the situation will continue to be grim.
Cessation of UNRRA activities and accumulated foreign exchange diffi
culties worsen the problem for nations in a weak bargaining position.
Every delay
in improving this situation further impairs the working
ability o f labour, slows up reconstruction, adds to the physical damage caused
by prolonged undernourishment, and accelerates social unrest.
Steps can still
be
taken
to improve the 1948 harvest.
More fertilizers, farm machinery, and pesticides could be delivered within
the next six months to areas of great need.
To accomplish this, the first step would be the immediate establishment
of an intergovernmental committee for each main deficit area. These committees
would co-ordinate the requirements of the individual nations and discuss
delivery possibilities with the supplying countries.
Restoration o f food output to pre-war levels is not enough.
World population is increasing by 15 to 20 millions each year, and
consumer demand for food is everywhere higher than before the war.
The answer to short-term scarcity is sustained expansion of production.
In Asia, where the food problem is of long standing, the basic difficulty
is overcrowding o f the land.
* Throughout this document, weights are in
metric
tons.
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