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Молочнохозяйственный вестник, №3 (19), III кв. 2015
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таты целесообразно использования при прогнозировании и планировании разви-
тия сельского хозяйства, а также при разработке целевых региональных программ.
Summary
The article considers the forecast peculiarities of economic systems development.
A special recognition is given to the forecast methodology based on the worked out
theses of N.D. Kondratyev that suggests the cycling character of the development.
General understanding of crises inevitability as well as their character, nature and
periodicity makes it possible and necessary to predict them. The most difficult element
in the forecast methodology is the prognosis of cycling dynamics of studied objects,
changes of cycles and their phases as well as periodically arised crises. This rhythm
system, periodical economic crises will have the same character in the future and should
be taken into account in the middle- and long-term forecasts. The study of cycles and
crises was conducted on agriculture in the Vologda region. The authors offer the system
of indicators for evaluation of cycles and crises which were studied within the period
from 1990 to 2013. The work bases the necessity to determine the cycling character of
agriculture development. Statistical studies show that it is purposeful to use resultant
indicators for the evaluation. The average annual rates of increase according to the
general delelopment indicators allow to determine the tendencies and periods of crises.
To define the depth and length of a long-term crisis cycle in agriculture it is offered to
use the production profitability, as the given indicator in dynamics reflects the cycling
and expresses the relationship between the useful final results of the functioning system
and the used resources. The forecast methodology of cycles and crises of agriculture
functioning on the regional level is based and approved. The given results are purposeful
to use in the prediction and planning of agriculture development as well as in elaborating
the special purpose regional programs.
Электронная Научная СельскоХозяйственная Библиотека