ЭлБиб

Молочнохозяйственный вестник, №3 (15), III кв. 2014

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ническую» демографическую старость населения региона и, как следствие, вы-

сокую смертность. Активная политика Правительства области, направленная на

разработку и реализацию социальных программ и проектов, имеет положительный

результат, поскольку несмотря на укоренившиеся демографические проблемы, яв-

ляющиеся характерной чертой всех северных регионов, в Вологодской области с

2006 года наметилась устойчивая тенденция замедления убыли населения, кото-

рая по прогнозам будет сохраняться.

Summary

The population of the Vologda region has been reducing for several decades. The

observed depopulation processes are due not only and not so much the standard of

the population living in the region but to a considerable extent to the age structure

characteristics of the population and gender differences in demographics. The statistical

methods make it possible to give a qualitative and quantative analysis of the processes

and to study their dynamics and structure. The analysis of the average annual

population dynamics shows a steady downward trend for the period of 2000-2012. For

the thirteen-year period the population decline totals 88thousand people or 6.8 %. The

greatest population decrease is observed in the period from 2001 to 2003 and in 2006.

The analytical dynamics smoothing population indicator makes it possible to calculate

the predicted value of the index for 2013 expected from 1190.2 to 1196.0 thousand

people that correlates with the preliminary data of the regional government (1194.9

thousand people). The analysis of men and women number distribution by age shows

a number of characteristic features of the population structure in the area, explaining

the stability of demographic problems: first, the wave-like effect of the demographic

crises manifesting in the low birth and high mortality rates that echo in all subsequent

generations, secondly pronounced predominance of the older ages of the population

(13.0 % of the total population are over 65 years of age), that indicates the “chronic”

demographic aging of the population, resulting in high mortality. The active government

policy measures aimed at the development and implementation of social programs and

projects have positive results, since in spite of entrenched demographic problems that

are characteristic for all Northern regions in Russia, since 2006 there is a steady trend of

the population decline deceleration, which is expected to persist in the Vologda region.

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